My Bondora portfolio, 3 years

Time flies when you’re having fun, huh? My Bondora portfolio is now three years old, so I thought I’d take a quick look back and see what’s been happening and share a bit about my future plans when it comes to my private portfolio in Bondora.

Some quick stats to get started:

Total money invested: 5000€

Total interest earned: 2031€ (as of 30.12.15)

Current portfolio: 80% Estonian loans

Loans by rating: see below

3012loanstotal

So, the good, the bad and the ugly. Overall I am happy with how my Bondora portfolio has performed. I also took some time to calculate my returns, and this is the current standing for my own calculations for returns:

Option 1 (Super pessimistic)

xirr301215

Option 2 (Less pessimistic)

xirrv2

The pessimistic scenario looks rather pessimistic indeed, but don’t get stuck on those numbers. This is because it assumes no recovery for loans, but I can actually see recovery happening, so no need to panic. Overall in the long run the returns will be somewhere in the 12% range, it has balanced out more and more  as time has gone on.

3012rec

Future plans

I have completely stopped adding money into my private portfolio, and once new year starts I will start actually taking out money. There are several reasons for this. 1) I am building a second Bondora portfolio for my business account (going well so far, have given out my first 100 loans), 2) The tax hit is just getting too big (before, it balanced out with my mortgage tax return, but this year I’m actually paying additional tax), 3) Benefits of investing as a business – both in terms of accepting defaulted loans and postponing tax obligations.

So, as of today, I have set my bids to AA & A Estonian loans, however many there may be, and hope to transfer out the 5000 euros that I invested in the next two years. This money will be directed into stock investments, mostly into buying into index funds regularly, since stocks are the most reasonable investment for a private person in Estonia. I predict that my private portfolio will remain in the range of 3000€, and I’ll keep it slowly spinning to track how it does.

10 thoughts on “My Bondora portfolio, 3 years

  1. Hi Kristi,

    could just use give more details on your return figures (pessimistic, moderate etc)? What are your assumption behind those?

    1. Hey! I’m using the base that Taavi from Rahafoorum made a while back, so the model is:
      Pessimistic – complete write off of all delayed and 60+ loans.
      Moderate – complete write off of all 60+ loans
      Optimistic – Partial recovery of 60+ loans (assuming 15% at the moment).
      Assuming a 5-6% bonus for sales on current loans in case of an exit (I should probably assume more since I have mostly Estonian loans, but that doesn’t change the end result that much. Also, I’m sure I could actually sell my defaulted EST loans for more than -85%, so the overall returns are probably higher by a few percentage points.)

      1. Thanks.

        Did you already adjust your return rates for taxes? How would they reduce your return rates under the same scenarios?

        1. Good question. Using an axe method I’d say just take off 20% (which would bring me to 10-12% net). Since my portfolio has grown in waves, and 60% of my interest income has been within this year, then it’s hard to assess the overall impact – one of the key reasons I’m mostly stopping as a private investor.

          1. You can’t really use an axe method here, since XIRR doesn’t care whether payments were principal or interest per se.

            In other words, XIRR could be same in both following scenarios:
            A:
            €10,000 invested – €1,000 defaulted + €3,000 interest earned = €12,000 total
            B:
            €10,000 invested – €5,000 defaulted + €7,000 interest earned = €12,000

            For you though, the second result would be a lot worse than for scenario A after taxes.

            You can account for taxes in the XIRR table, if you add the tax payment as a “deposit” with the correct date where the rest of the deposits/withdrawals are added below.

            For this year, means you’d have to wait a while and you still have time to earn some additional return on that money 😉

            1. Ah, cool, I didn’t know I could add it that way, though when I think of it now, it makes sense! I’ll definitely throw that in at some point.

    1. I haven’t tried Mintos yet, but they do seem reliable enough. The buyback guarantee that some of the loans have, has definitely attracted a lot of investors. Their returns due to that are going to be lower in the long run, which is why I haven’t added another portal into my portfolio.

      1. In theory it should be lower by the “default premium”.
        In terms of taxes this is optimal also so probably even lower rates than the current rates are acceptable by me. However, by the end of 2016 I may not be investing so much to Mintos if they manage to drop the rates below 5-6 % range (euribor interest were around 4.5-5 % in 2006-2007).

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