Twino and Mintos are both making me 1 euro/day

I’m a fan of silly investment goals. Just aiming for the big goals 10K – 100K – 1M or anything of the sort is great in theory, but a bit demotivating at start, because the first big goals take the longest, and the big goals often seem so far off, that they seem impossible to achieve. So, take joy in the little things!

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Since the end of the year is nearing, then I’m starting to write in some final numbers to look over goals and returns for the year and I noticed that both Twino and Mintos portfolios are both earning just over 30 euros per month, which means an euro every day. It might seem small, but I mean – if you found an euro or two on the ground every day to work you’d be pretty happy, no? Also, that’s just enough to  buy a latte every day forever 😉

On a more serious note, both Twino and Mintos have clearly done well this year, finishing at 10M/month, which is finally starting to make the totals for P2P lending in the Baltics look nice. The ease of use, and lack of overall attention you need to pay on the investments is nice for any passive investor, but there are of course changes happening constantly that you should keep an eye out on.

Twino

Twino is by far the most hands off part of my P2P portfolio. Due to overall lack of any detailed info about clients, it’s as much of a set-and-forget as possible in P2P. It does seem like there is an increasingly large amount of investors’ money available because you’re unlikely to see any higher interest loans available listed on the market. I assume without an autobidder it’s near impossible to invest into them.

Overall, I’ve kept to my strategy of mainly 13% interest rate longer-length loans. Largely because I don’t see myself needing the money any time soon, and secondly because a large part of those loans gets bought back due to the buyback guarantee, meaning if I did need to get the money out it would be reasonably easy.

Mintos

Mintos however has been a bit more hands on. Since the interest rates that different loan originators offer change rather often, you must keep an eye out on what’s happening. This means tinkering a bit here and there with the interest rates in the autobidder and due to high demand for loans it’s rather difficult to get into them even with the autobidder set, it seems.

My recent strategy has been picking up loans on the secondary market. There are always people leaving the site and selling their investments, some people even sell things at a discount when they’re delayed (yes, even buyback loans), so there is potential there. It does however take some time, because you have to do the purchases manually.


Overall I can’t say that I have any big complaints about either of the sites. Current plan is to slowly keep increasing both portfolios until they are both bigger than my position in Bondora (which will happen rather soon), making them the 3rd and 4th biggest P2P positions in my portfolio (currently led by Omaraha and Crowdestate). Definitely nice to see good diversification options on the market!

 

19 thoughts on “Twino and Mintos are both making me 1 euro/day

  1. Are you not concerned for the fact that your Twino portfolio seems to be doing well mostly because of buyback guarantee?

    I see this as a big risk for the reasons: A) that you don’t have much information about borrowers, B) have longer term loans, large chunks of which default even when economy is doing well, C) it seems that the current economic cycle is coming to an end, D) there can always be something unexpected happening fast.

    Therefore, for example, I currently have my Twino portfolio split 50/50 between longer term and short term loans. In the future I plan to keep it at 25/75 respectively. I know that I currently pay some part of my potential returns, but I think that in case some crisis scenario it would be much faster to get my cash back to safety.

    For the same reason I prefer Mintos to Twino, because I think Twino model has a lot more similarities to the risky securities model, which have caused the crisis of 2008-09. Mintos at least forces non-bank credit lenders to keep some “skin in the game”.

    What are your thoughts on this topic?

    1. As Twino itself is a part of the loan originator (Finabay) then the reliability of the buyback for shorter term loans vs longer term loans is equal since they are guaranteed by the same entity, therefore within Twino I don’t see additional risk due to investing into longer term loans.

      If I compare my Twino and Mintos portfolios though, then Mintos’s short term loans are really not all that much better (Lendo for example), and there is a significant amount of buybacks there as well – more than 1/3 of my loans are constantly delayed there, and when the ratio of short term loans increases, the delayed rate actually increases as well.

  2. > I don’t see additional risk due to investing into longer term loans.
    opsalaa, Kristi really? I am afraid you have a large error here…

    1. Ok, no additional risk was probably not the best way to phrase it. I’ll phrase it like this – why are you confident that you will be made aware of the buyback system failing before it actually fails? By investing into the short term loans you are believing in both Finabay’s ability to asses risk (their credit rating system) + their ability to keep the buyback happening. (Though it you do believe in being able to correct your strategy in time, when of course you should only take in short term loans – which aren’t that short term since they can still be excended 6 months).
      There is currently no public statistical data to claim that Finabay’s ability to assess risk for short term loans is better than for long term loans. If the buyback does fail, then you won’t probably be made aware quickly enough to pull out of the system anyways. The claim agains the loan client however still remains, as with all P2P sites, so unless speed is of the essence, I felt it reasonable to take the risk.

  3. What do you think about the russian loans that are entering the market in december? (2-12 months and 14% intrest with a buyback guarantee)

    1. It was interesting news, the Russian market has been getting stronger recently. However since as far as I know, since they guarantee the buyback at the corporation level, then the increased interest seems a bit illogical.

      1. It’s not illogical if you look at the bigger picture.

        Investing into those is riskier. You may never be exposed to that risk if everything goes well and Twino has no problem with buyback, but you are still taking the potential risk by investing there.

        Only reason when it would not make sense, is if you think that buyback means no risk.

        Although, I’m not claiming that pricing in Twino as a whole makes much sense. 3 month and 24 month loans both priced at same rates for example…

        1. It is illogical in the sense that they are offering a risk reward to investors – but the investors do not have enough information to assess risk, so the majority will clearly just pick higher interest rates.

          1. From an economics theory point of view it is illogical to offer higher rates for RUS vs other loans, as the loans are guaranteed by the same company. But since people are not rational Twino has to offer higher rates for the perceived higher country risk.

            1. It would be this way yes, if the risk would end with Twino not being able to fulfill their buyback commitment.

              However, if Twino goes belly up, then investor is left with the loans he/she invested into.

              If one country is inherently riskier than other then for this simple reason it should carry a higher interest rate as well, even if it has same buyback. The risk may never realize, but it’s there.

              In case of Mintos it may be even more so, since last I saw this topic discussed, Mintos representative was entertaining the idea that in case of originator failure the investor will still continue to receive only the haircut rate, become exposed to full risk (with buyback gone) and the difference will be used to cover collection/managing costs.

              In short you’d be taking more risk for same reward.

  4. Hi Kristi
    Why do you prefer Mintos and Twino over Bondora? As you mention you are raising your investments in those platforms beyond what you have invested in Bondora..

    1. Due to recent changes in Bondora it’s become virtually impossible to invest via API, and I do not wish to 1) turn on the PM or 2) spend time on the secondary market. Other sites just offer virtually same (or higher) returns with way less effort.

      1. Interesting. Which platforms do you believe have greater returns for passive investors according to you?

        My personal experience is different I have to say and Bondora steadily ranks as the highest returning platform (over 20% for me) while using their auto investor. A lot higher than Mintos, Fellow finance and Crossland for example…
        Curious to hear your thoughts

        1. If you are getting a steady 20% return from Bondora you are either incredibly good or incredibly lucky or incredibly optimistic. The true test for Bondora returns is the recovery process. While there aren’t any defaults or they are low, it seems like the returns are very good, but once your portfolio ages enough, then you will see more realistic numbers. I’d call anything above 12% from Bondora at the moment very good. My own 4-year-old portfolio that I’m eliminating will at best finish at 9% return (might end lower), which is less than impressive.

        2. If you are using their Portfolio Manager then even their own estimates won’t promise returns even close to anything to that.

          It seems that you’ve been mislead to believe that Bondora returns are comparable to other platform returns. Which is not very surprising of course, considering that Bondora compare them directly all the time.

          In reality Bondora uses the most extremely optimistic calculation methodology that assumes almost 100% recovery rate for freshly defaulted loans and then deducts the loss very slowly and gradually from the calculation.

          Your entire portfolio could default today and you’d likely still see it showing positive returns for months to come.

    1. Fundamentally there is a limited way of managing it. 1) diversification – my portfolio is split between 4 different P2P portals. 2) keeping up with news – I read the yearly reports of the companies, attend relevant events, keep up with discussions in online groups etc. Essentially that’s all you can do and when things do not seem good to you anymore then you just have to pull your money out.

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